i just heard that there's like 1 million people in the uk who have it. and 1 in 5 people will get it, so thats making me worry! im so so sick of hearing about it, i cant stop thinking about it :/
i just heard that there's like 1 million people in the uk who have it. and 1 in 5 people will get it, so thats making me worry! im so so sick of hearing about it, i cant stop thinking about it :/
stop reading about it! I avoid all media where possible!
Also you are half way through the winter now! 1 million isnt that high a number when you take into consideration the population of the UK and all those that have/will get it will not neccessarily *v - may be a mild case!
Try to forget about it and just keep up your hygeine and you should be good
surely its around 1 in 60 to get it seen as there's over 60 million people in the uk??
The way I see it is that the HPA stats are based on estimated figures from confirmed cases in England and Wales.
Population of England and Wales = 56m ish
3877 confirmed cases so far announced
3877 x 288 (estimated cases per confirmed case) = 1,116,576 cases overall
1,116,576/56,000,000 = 0.019
0.019 x 100 = 2%
So maths aside, around about 2-3% of the population of the UK and Wales have had the bug since June (or is it July when they start the 'noro year')
We're halfway through the peak period now so I really wouldn't panic too much although I know all too well that it's easier said than done!
PS. Hi! I'm new
Hey there. I'm also sick of hearing about it now. Thing is, I'm not in control of my TV, so if my parents are watching the news I just go out of the room now, because I know what to expect. Also, it's not 1 in 5, it's like 1 in 60 which is low!
Virtue - "You don't need a reason to help people"
It sounds even better when you multiply it up a bit. 2 in 120, 4 in 240. Also considering that a lot of the cases have been in environments where people are close together a lot of these 1 in 60s will be in a very small radius!
^ I agree. I also look at it that way too. Can't wait until March time where I'm not crazy again. :/ By the way, welcome to the forum!
Virtue - "You don't need a reason to help people"
I live in Japan and Noro is the big thing here in the last few years. I was here last January visiting my mother. They had such an outbreak in one of the prefectures that they had to close the schools. My family that lives in the prefecture said they never got it. I went to that prefecture and spent a couple of days but i didnt get it. I was very careful though. The year before my Mom and my grandpa caught it after going to a hot spring for my grandpas birthday in March. Every time the virus runs rampant they out it on the news. I kind of appreciate it so i can keep track of the outbreaks and the areas and to see how long it all lasts. On the other hand i am like you and dont want to hear about do i can keep from stressing out. I guess you have to weigh the two and decide which is better for you. If you dont want to hear it turn off the media. Hearing about it stresses me out as much as wanting to stay in the know. I dont know which is worse.
Thanks for the welcome! I've been lurking here for a week or two revelling in the fact that I'm not just completely mental and that others share similar fears! I'm usually a very logical person, but I just can't help myself when it comes to v*
I hardly seen it on televsion,lol infact the only place i hear about it, is in this forum, i have a big fear of it vomiting, but refuse to worry about catching it, i had stomach virus last May, so know what expect if i do get, you do survive,lol
I havent heard about it in Vancouver, B.C until my mom who lives in on the island told me she was sick with the "stomach flu" - she works in the hosptital in nanimo and she says its spreading like wildfire in the hospital! Ever since then I have heard it on the news about being in vancouver hospitals and one in kamloops and its all on my twitter and FB feed now... UGH
http://www.emetophobia.org/showthrea...-aus-worldwide
Stop watching the news, relax, live your life. If your mind starts think of noro, try to put your mind on a different path.
no doubt it's bad this year.
Just look at the actual figures of confirmed cases! The estimates cannot be relied on! I'm sure if I had phoned NHS direct the other night they would have told me I had it! Can't say if I did or didn't tho!
Remember the press will use worse case scenarios to sell papers etc cause there's nothing more important for the news that day!
3877 confirmed cases?! In the whole country?! That's tiny! And since June/July!
Keep calm people were nearly over the worse of it!
Thing is, it's going to be inevitable for me. The rest of my family have poor hygiene, I have great hygiene but I'm worried it's not going to be enough. We also have one bathroom in our house so if one of them go down with it, well...... Surely the one in ten thing is a joke?! It surely can't be THAT bad right?......
Virtue - "You don't need a reason to help people"
I think the media are just having a competition to see who can come up with the most ridiculous statistics. On Wednesday I read in a local paper that 1 in 10 people were likely to be ringing in sick that day with noro. Really? So how come I didn't notice a good 10 or so people out of the approximately 100 I work with were missing? And, of the 14 people I work closely with, 1 person went home with a chest infection and the rest of us were either in or on holiday. And noone has come back after Christmas complaining of having had it? Flu, yes. Colds, yes. Noro, no. But 1 in 10 would be ill on Wednesday? Absolutely, and we don't think for a minute that you've taken selected statistics that don't go together, multiplied them and got a magic 1 in 10.
Today I read that 1 in 5 people in Scotland have had it this year. Again, really? Infection rates in Scotland are really rubbish by the way as there, apparently 400 people get it for every confirmed case, so well over 100 more than anywhere else. I'm not sure why, maybe it's cos the Scots are a hardy bunch that don't like to trouble their doctors, so hardly any cases get confirmed. Whereas in the rest of the UK 1 out of every 288 or so people with it run to the doctors. Again, absolutely, we believe you, and we don't think you've just made that up so you get over the magic million people marker.
If we asked the reporters to do 1+1, the norovirus reporters would get something at least in double figures.
Strangely enough, if you walk around the UK at the moment, there are normal people about. There are perfectly well people about, there are people around with colds and things. The place hasn't shut down and you don't have to dodge ill people everywhere you go. Towns and cities and offices are not like ghost towns because everyone is too ill to go out. That is what you'd think was happening if you believed the media, but funnily enough, it really isn't the case.
The 1 in 10, incidentally, I think was calculated as follows:
1. Take the number of people who, in 2 weeks, visited their GP complaining of d* and/ or v*.
2. Multiply by 288 - the magic noro number.
3. Divide the population of selected areas of Greater Manchester (which was where the 1 in 10 was reported on Wednesday) by the answer from the above, and you get 1 in 10 people with noro.
Problems with the above:
1. This statistic includes noro patients, rotavirus patients, food poisoning and everything else that gives d* and/ or v*. Plus it's 2 weeks of cases. This doesn't last for 2 weeks, so you can hardly take 2 weeks worth of people and say that's the number who have it right now.
2. The magic noro number is for estimating total number of cases from total confirmed cases. Not total estimates from total of people with similar symptoms which may or may not be noro, they should be laboratory confirmed. How many people in 1. were laboratory confirmed? Answer, very, very few as most doctors won't bother with testing samples. So the answer here is massively overinflated, probably by a factor of tens, if not hundreds.
3. Our answer from 2. is miles out. Absolutely miles out. So we can compare it to the population of anywhere and get a wrong answer. But no, we have to compare it to selected bits to get a 1 in 10, cos that sounds like a lot. But if answer 2. was even a factor of 10 out, we've just made the statistic 1 in 100.
Phew! And we can start to breathe again...
All I can say is THANK YOU....
I am supposed to go out to eat tomorrow night and was having second thoughts.
Kellygirl