A bit of reality on the noro stats in the UK

[graceandhope]

I know loads of people are panicking over the news in the UK and the reports about noro. Anyway, I checked out the HPA site, as that's where all the stats come from, and the real picture is this:

"Figures from the Health Protection Agency (HPA) show a drop in the number of hospital outbreaks of norovirus from 53 in the two weeks to November 25 2012 down to 40 in the two weeks to the 2 December 2012."

Number of reports received: - week 45 - 286/ week 46 - 312/ week 47 -306/ week 48 -108

Looking at the graphs, average reports for this time of year look to be around 100, or maybe a bit less.

So, yes, there's been a blip, with a few weeks of higher than average number of cases, but it looks like we're not far from being back to normal now. Noro isn't 'everywhere', it's actually very far from it, but obviously that doesn't make for a big news story, does it?

Full HPA report is here for anyone wanting the facts, rather than the news slant which, if nothing else, is out of date http://www.hpa.org.uk/hpr/infections...c.htm#comm4952

[crazymama]

Thankyou so much for finding this and sharing it, trying to stay POSITIVE x

[hannahcharlotte]

this helped SO much, Thankyou! But apparantly, for every one reported case they'res 288 unreported cases.. Its so hard to stay positive when they'res loads of different statistics flying round the place! x

[graceandhope]

this helped SO much, Thankyou! But apparantly, for every one reported case they'res 288 unreported cases.. Its so hard to stay positive when they'res loads of different statistics flying round the place! x

True. So let's take 288 unreported cases for each of the latest stats of 108 reported cases. That's just over 31,000 cases.

Now take the population of the UK - something over 60 million. So, in other words, about 0.05% of the total UK population had noro in week 48, or 1 in every 2,000 people. I reckon that, as emets are far more careful than average people, our chances of catching it are less than half that. So let's say 1 in 4,000 chance, or 0.025%. You can reduce that further if you're not in a school, hospital, nursing home or other similar environment as well, where infection rates tend to be higher.

It's generally reported that between 600,000 and 1 million people get it each year and, even at 1 million people getting it, your chances as an emet come down to about 0.8%.

It doesn't make for good headlines though, so far better for newspapers to run stories of hundreds of thousands of people being infected, cos big numbers are scary. Just remember that, even if a million people get it, that's only about 1.6% of the total UK population. But which sounds more impressive, and therefore likely to sell papers - '1 million people' or '1.6% of the UK population'?

[hannahcharlotte]

WOW! thats a low statistic. THANKYOU SO MUCH

[crazymama]

YES wow, thankyou, you are a genius lol x

[Rls1994]

You can reduce that further if you're not in a school, hospital, nursing home or other similar environment as well, where infection rates tend to be higher.

That's me. Cheers for the info! Made me feel an awful lot better than I was earlier.

[Lindsey_anne]

What a great post!! Thank you so much! Wish the news wouldn't sensationalise these things! I haven't heard half as many people I now coming down with noro this year! There seems to be a lot of viruses doing the rounds but they aren't all noro! A guy I work with aside had noro! Tho he only *v a couple of times...go figure! How many of those reporting having it really do?!

[graceandhope]

I do think there's a lot of assumptions. Put noro in the news and suddenly everyone who feels a bit off has it. So their after effects of drinking too much at the Christmas party - noro. The feeling ill after eating something really dodgy - noro. Cat sneezes - noro. Don't put it in the news and folk will have a hangover/ food poisoning.

Think about how many people claim to have flu when they have a cold. Do we worry? No, it's a cold. We can see it's just a cold and they're exaggerating, but saying they've got flu makes them sound like a martyr for being in work, and they're really ill, you know. I mean, they've got a headache and a snuffly nose and possibly even a slightly sore throat. Panic stops us from thinking rationally as soon as someone says noro, yet they're just as likely to be exaggerating about that.

Also, about 25% of workers have admitted to taking fake sick days and it's known that stuff like this is one of the most used fake reasons. So, on the run up to Christmas, you're busy, got other things to do, you've got a hangover, don't want to go to work and everyone knows that noro is 'going round' so it's a perfect excuse. Call in and say you've got it. Noone will want you in the office, you can have a couple of days off, no questions asked. Talk about how awful it was and noone will doubt it as they'll be too busy avoiding you. Stick something on facebook about it as backup, just so everyone knows you're really ill, and you're sorted.

That's most likely the reality, though it can be really difficult to rationalise when panic takes over. But it certainly isn't in any way as bad as we interpret it from the papers. And possibly, the papers will do us a favour by making other people more aware and more concerned and so maybe marginally better at personal hygiene.

[thelittlestranger]

You are so amazing for writing this post and spending the time working out those statistics. Thank you x

Cat sneezes - noro.

Also - this really lightened my mood this evening! x

[Angie36]

This is my first post although I have been coming to this site for a few months. I would just like to say thank you for putting it into perspective. I knew noro would hit the news at some point as it does every year but it just seems to be on the tv every 5mins and is really starting to panic me, I try really hard to rationalise what's in the news and how I'm feeling but its getting harder to do.....I must not freak out!!!!!

[Still A Weirdo]

I can't enjoy anything at the moment because I'm so scared, but I look at the HPA results a lot. It's just so difficult with these big headlines about noro... I feel so sick all the time. Thank you for doing this post though, we'll get through this guys. Stay strong!

[aufachse]

Amazing post, thank you for sharing. It is really difficult when the headlines are so scary and it feels like it's everywhere, but this is the truth.

[DizzyPeanut]

Thats brilliant! Thank you for sharing, i have been sat here worrying day and night that its 'really high, and everywhere' now there is hope! woohoo

[Elle5]

I joined this site today to say thank you to Graceandhope for putting this outbreak of Noro into perspective. I'm sixty six years old and have lived with emet all my life, any reference to Noro, D & V or any other virus that includes the dreaded symptoms brings about a state of panic. The constant reference to the latest outbreak on the news both on TV and radio doesn't do me any favours, I'd rather not know because what I don't know can't hurt me.

I dread going out in case I become infected, when I do go out I wear gloves, I'm constantly looking around in case anyone even looks ill! I carry a bottle of the hand cleanser in my handbag, even though I'm aware that it isn't really effective against Noro.

Anyway, that's enough about that, what I really want to say is thank you, I'm still stressed out by it but not as much since reading the posts in this thread. As I said previously, it's put things into perspective.

[bex]

Brilliant post, I think we all needed to read something like this...the media are sods for sensationalising things at the best of times, especially noro (because we all LOVE a little scare at Christmas time, don't we?! :/ ) but this has really put things in perspective for people. Thank you, graceandhope

[jotini]

might have to bookmark this post to refer back to when i'm feeling stressed!

[jotini]

also, there was a small spike compared to last year but the rest of 2012 has been lower rates compared to 2011. :/

[mondayschild]

This has really helped me. I have been in such a panic this week. Thank you

[Bezza1992]

Best post ever! ! Just saw the news completely freaked myself out. . Took anti emetics and sucking mints to try and calm down but this has helped me rationalise it out a bit! !

Thanks!! Fingers crossed xx

[tallgirl]

Great post, thank you!

I try not to look at statistics but one caught me by surprise earlier so this has really helped! :-)

[Kazzia]

Great post - it's calmed me down too. I was thinking about the stats earlier. I was working from home today so made some lunch and took it through to the lounge to watch BBC News while I ate it. I had barely sat down for 30 seconds before a story about noro came on. FFS. I slammed down my fork with sheer indignance. Basically these days, 800,000 or so people getting a common virus is newsworthy? There are 8 MILLION people in London alone and they're banging on about statistics which are mostly made up...

What got me thinking though was how come the news outlets are getting more obsessed with noro as each year goes by? When I was growing up in the 90s the only health story in the winter was influenza, and the risk of elderly people dying from it. Nothing is mentioned about flu anymore - which is equally as contagious if not more so because it's airborne.

I only hope news outlets can start promoting the importance of handwashing a bit more. If everyone had an emet's hygiene noro rates would drop off to barely nothing. I was in the doctor's surgery the other week for a health check and had to go to the toilet for a sample...and there was not ONE poster up anywhere reminding people to wash their hands, let alone how to wash hands properly...

[techie83]

A very good post to try and gain a bit of perspective on the dire headlines at the moment!

Another thing to keep in mind is the '800,000' figure is a total since the summer, NOT a total of people currently infected!

[babyeyes]

I happened to look on the BBC news app on my phone earlier and ran into one of those news bulletins, absolutely ruined my day! Christmas is especially hard for me; I got noro on Boxing day 2006 and it was honestly one of the worst experiences of my life. I always get paranoid around Christmas now, I guess because you spend more time with more people. But it's good to know that things aren't quite as bad as the media is making it seem; I know there have been bugs going round but from what I can it hasn't been noro.

[dipper]

Again, chiming in with a big UK THANK YOU - these statistics really do put everything into perspective.

I'm still not going to let my guard down - I feel like if I do that's when it will strike - but it is a comfort to be reminded how much people blow things out of proportion. As well as the amount of people who are surely lying about having it, of course! I don't think about things like that as I'd never lie about it - to me that's tempting fate, like people who lie about a family member dying to get off work - WHO would do that??

Anyway. We just need to keep washing our hands, eating well, taking vitamins and not freak out at the facebook/twitter updates and the news... and ENJOY our holidays!

[Kazzia]

Today again it continues - front page of The Telegraph now screaming about how it's going to "ruin Christmas" for so many people (Telegraph is so sensationalist these days, used to be my paper of choice but its reporting is closer to the Daily Mail's half the time).

It's on the front page of the Express as well. Seriously, what is it with the media? I'm an "out of sight, out of mind" person. While my hand washing and vigilence has increased recently, now I'm just on a constant state of alert and paranoia, and as such my appetite has dipped and I am worrying about it late at night and every time I eat out. It's bad enough with the stress of my job in the run-up to Christmas and now I'm going to spend Christmas in a house with two children and my worry is only going to escalate....arrrrgggh!!

[dipper]

I just had a look - so sensationalist! It probably gets people worried even if they're not emetophobes... but remember everything in the post above! I'm feeling the same as you but I'm really trying to get on with it, I feel like if I can get up to my family on Saturday in one piece, that's half the battle won... before I start worrying about anyone in my family being unwell...

Also, while I'm at it, it REALLY annoys me when people in the UK say they're 'sick' when it's just a cold! I know 'sick' is an americanism, but just the usage of that word instantly makes me think 'OH NO THEY'VE GOT A STOMACH BUG'. Baaah!

[Rls1994]

I only hope news outlets can start promoting the importance of handwashing a bit more. If everyone had an emet's hygiene noro rates would drop off to barely nothing. I was in the doctor's surgery the other week for a health check and had to go to the toilet for a sample...and there was not ONE poster up anywhere reminding people to wash their hands, let alone how to wash hands properly...

I agree with you totally. But, the thing is, even if they did do that, most people won't take any notice of it because they just don't care... That's the main thing that annoys me so much. Just like you mentioned - if people had hygiene like us emet's, hardly anyone would go down with it, if at all.

I remember when I went to Weymouth in August and since I was out all day I had to use a loo there which was of course an absolute nightmare for me since I never ever use public toilets but IMO, they're so disgusting and virus/bacteria ridden.. Anyway, since I had to wait to use the loo, I saw like EIGHT people who used the toilet and went out without washing their hands even though there was a big sign above the hand dryer. It absolutely disgusted me...

Also, most people in my family go out, do shopping, touch stuff then go home and don't wash their hands. TOTALLY FRUSTRATES ME! And of course, adds more anxiety for me. I get loads of questions in my head like 'What if the trollies, baskets etc they touched were contaminated with the virus?' then I worry for like three days until I know that they're OK. I hate this goddamn phobia so much....

Sorry for venting.

[babyeyes]

I agree with you totally. But, the thing is, even if they did do that, most people won't take any notice of it because they just don't care... That's the main thing that annoys me so much. Just like you mentioned - if people had hygiene like us emet's, hardly anyone would go down with it, if at all.

I remember when I went to Weymouth in August and since I was out all day I had to use a loo there which was of course an absolute nightmare for me since I never ever use public toilets but IMO, they're so disgusting and virus/bacteria ridden.. Anyway, since I had to wait to use the loo, I saw like EIGHT people who used the toilet and went out without washing their hands even though there was a big sign above the hand dryer. It absolutely disgusted me...

Also, most people in my family go out, do shopping, touch stuff then go home and don't wash their hands. TOTALLY FRUSTRATES ME! And of course, adds more anxiety for me. I get loads of questions in my head like 'What if the trollies, baskets etc they touched were contaminated with the virus?' then I worry for like three days until I know that they're OK. I hate this goddamn phobia so much....

Sorry for venting.

I am exactly the same regarding the baskets/trollies and stuff! Any time i've been shopping recently it's been with my mum, and I've actually made her let me put a bit of sanitizer on the handles first; I guess it doesn't really do anything but yeah. Then obviously I make her use sanitizer after/wash her hands after; I make my family do a lot of this to be honest. But I know they still don't always remember.

Some of my family though are really germy when it comes to bugs and colds; don't think twice about coming round, coughing over everyone, mixing with people, letting their kids mix with people. They don't ever wash their hands either, and they're part of this really close knit community that always seems to have bugs going round. It really annoys me; both times i've gotten ill in the last six years have been because of them.

[LouiseR]

So glad I read this post, it really helps to have the figures put into perspective. I just read on bbc news that its estimated that between 600,000 and 1 million people will have had norovirus between summer and now, so worst case scenario 1 million get it and thats about 1 in 60 considering the population of the country and a lot of the people making up these numbers will be those in hospitals/schools/homes where they've had an outbreak.

The newspapers don't half make it seem like everyone is going to get it. To be honest, i'm quite surprised that the figures are as low as this due to how the media goes on about how easily it spreads. Did anyone happen to watch HIGNFY the other night? Great ep but they brought up noro and it really didn't help my days anxiety.