Hello.

One of my regular patients mentioned this forum to me earlier in the week and having logged on and reading through some of the posts, I thought I would give an update on the current situation in the United Kingdom and answer some of the common questions which seem to arise frequently.

Firstly, my name is Lindsay and I work at the Chelsea and Westminster Hospital in London and part of my duty at this time of year is to collate information on outbreaks of the Norovirus both locally and nationally which is then relayed to regional trusts as well as the media. We are also this year incorporating data from the Met Office which has proved time and time again since November 2012 that certain climatic conditions assist with spread of outbreaks.

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The good news is that with Christmas and the New Year out of the way, levels of new cases have started to drop in many parts of the England and Wales. However, parts of Scotland, notably Edinburgh and Glasgow have increased fairly significantly this week. With a fair degree of confidence, I am sure we have now reached the peak of the 2012/13 winter outbreak. There may be pockets of new outbreaks next week when schools and college return, but overall it should be a gradual decline now until April.

The current strain of the Norovirus is very contagious especially when in the vicinity of a person suffering a v* episode. I have seen countless reports of coach/bus/train/plane incidents where a large majority of those travelling in that confined space have been struck down with the virus within a time-frame of 24-36 hours. Normally you would see a 40-60% infection rate in these situations, but it would appear to be nearer 80% at the moment.

I'm positive that everyone here participates in excellent levels of hand hygiene, but it's important to take on board whats in the above paragraph. As a doctor, I should not really be recommending this, but if you notice anyone suffering a episode of v* in the street, on a bus or train, make some distance between yourselves and stay calm. If (and this is important), you notice the person collapse or suffering from severe pain and requires assistance, provide support as you would with any medical emergency. Fainting attacks are common with severe nausea and v* episodes and your help could save their life!

With significantly above average temperatures across England, Wales and Scotland at the moment, there is good evidence that this is helping the spread of the outbreak. Also, with very little in the way of sunshine, this does not help with the breaking down of the virus on hard outdoor surfaces. The Met Office reported today that by mid-month, colder conditions with snow is set to return which will help slow the spread. Cold weather does not destroy the virus (as it's resistant to well below -50 degrees C), but with changes in social life and more people wearing gloves, it does help!

We are over the worse now, and although we have another 2-3 months of this particular strain in the 'wild', keep up with the hand hygiene, follow the useful advice of this site and you will make it through.

Finally, new trials of the Norovirus vaccine have started in the United States and Europe following the successful trials of 2011 and 2012. It is still likely that by 2015 that a vaccine for all ages will be available (and it can't come soon enough for most of us!)

Enjoy the weekend and I hope the latest news provide some comfort to you.

Lindsay