UK Norovirus Update (Stats/Advice 04/01)

[LindsayUK]

Hello.

One of my regular patients mentioned this forum to me earlier in the week and having logged on and reading through some of the posts, I thought I would give an update on the current situation in the United Kingdom and answer some of the common questions which seem to arise frequently.

Firstly, my name is Lindsay and I work at the Chelsea and Westminster Hospital in London and part of my duty at this time of year is to collate information on outbreaks of the Norovirus both locally and nationally which is then relayed to regional trusts as well as the media. We are also this year incorporating data from the Met Office which has proved time and time again since November 2012 that certain climatic conditions assist with spread of outbreaks.

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The good news is that with Christmas and the New Year out of the way, levels of new cases have started to drop in many parts of the England and Wales. However, parts of Scotland, notably Edinburgh and Glasgow have increased fairly significantly this week. With a fair degree of confidence, I am sure we have now reached the peak of the 2012/13 winter outbreak. There may be pockets of new outbreaks next week when schools and college return, but overall it should be a gradual decline now until April.

The current strain of the Norovirus is very contagious especially when in the vicinity of a person suffering a v* episode. I have seen countless reports of coach/bus/train/plane incidents where a large majority of those travelling in that confined space have been struck down with the virus within a time-frame of 24-36 hours. Normally you would see a 40-60% infection rate in these situations, but it would appear to be nearer 80% at the moment.

I'm positive that everyone here participates in excellent levels of hand hygiene, but it's important to take on board whats in the above paragraph. As a doctor, I should not really be recommending this, but if you notice anyone suffering a episode of v* in the street, on a bus or train, make some distance between yourselves and stay calm. If (and this is important), you notice the person collapse or suffering from severe pain and requires assistance, provide support as you would with any medical emergency. Fainting attacks are common with severe nausea and v* episodes and your help could save their life!

With significantly above average temperatures across England, Wales and Scotland at the moment, there is good evidence that this is helping the spread of the outbreak. Also, with very little in the way of sunshine, this does not help with the breaking down of the virus on hard outdoor surfaces. The Met Office reported today that by mid-month, colder conditions with snow is set to return which will help slow the spread. Cold weather does not destroy the virus (as it's resistant to well below -50 degrees C), but with changes in social life and more people wearing gloves, it does help!

We are over the worse now, and although we have another 2-3 months of this particular strain in the 'wild', keep up with the hand hygiene, follow the useful advice of this site and you will make it through.

Finally, new trials of the Norovirus vaccine have started in the United States and Europe following the successful trials of 2011 and 2012. It is still likely that by 2015 that a vaccine for all ages will be available (and it can't come soon enough for most of us!)

Enjoy the weekend and I hope the latest news provide some comfort to you.

Lindsay

[graceandhope]

Thank you

[gson]

I am so grateful for this. Thank you so much! The fact you say the worst is over has put my mind and probably many others at rest is there any chance you could keep us updated? X

[Lindsey_anne]

Thank you! You couldn't have posted at a better time!

Although I am going on a train to London next weekend! :P but I will certainly keep my hands to myself and my wits about me!

Cheers!

[theresetoby]

That's very kind of you to take so much time to collaborate all this information. I can only hope that the same is true for Ireland. I really hope it's beginning to settle. Thank u

[Rls1994]

This is wonderful news! Thank you for posting. It's nice to know that we're over the worst now. I'm telling myself I won't get it. That means over 8 years I have avoided it now. Yey.

[lilwng]

Know any stats about the US?

[JustLacey]

Thank you so much. EXACTLY what I needed to get me through noro season!x

[LouK]

Thanks for this! It's reassuring that you say the worst is hopefully over! Roll on the cold weather!

[jbsmom]

thanks so much! i dont live in the UK but i do live in Japan where we have had some pretty bad outbreaks. Its good to hear that if the UK is dying down maybe it is over here too.

[jotini]

reading the bit about being over the peak of the season i just let out a huge sigh of relief and felt much lighter. thank you for this.

[crazymama]

Thankyou so much for taking the time, VERY reassuring, bless your heart for caring x

[ktg0612]

I really appreciate this message but I am still freaking out as school starts back tomorrow & I can not control my sons hygiene so it does freak me! Do they offer any support at C&W for emetophobia as this is my local hospital? Many thanks

[anxious28]

i'm still worried too, because i have to catch the bus and train twice a day to get to and from work and if someone v*'s on the train im screwed because its so over crowded and claustrophobic. im thinknig of wearng a mask but peope will think im an absolute loony

[LouK]

I have the same thing anxious28 as I have to get the tube in the mornings. I was thinking of keeping one in my bag just in case. I don't care about looking weird if it stops me getting ill.

[ilovemypug]

Thank you!

[LindsayUK]

The Tube (Subway) in London has always been a worry for me as I have to travel 15 minutes each way to work each day. Just the thought of holding on to the poles/handles makes me nervous. I normally sit on the seat near the door behind the glass that shields me from the gale-force wind that blows through the carriages (hell knows what is mixed up in that air!)

London hasn't been too bad with the recent outbreak, in fact it has had the lowest number of hospital ward closures in the whole country. This goes against the rule (population / confined space).

anxious28 / LouK - I think the wearing of masks is common-place in many polluted cites of the world, I would have no worries wearing one in London. On Christmas Eve, this young girl on the platform at Sloane Square station started leaning over and was about to v* - I have never ran so fast to get out of the station. Apart from my phobia, I was going to do everything to avoid ruining Christmas for my family.

ktg0612 - There are several support services at the C&W H but a referral is needed from your local GP. The return to school/college/uni tomorrow does pose concerns with any viral outbreak. Being in a classroom with 20-30 teenagers confined, a canteen or even the changing room at P.E. on many levels is worse than a hospital ward. I do think we have seen the peak and being 7 days into the new year should be enough time for levels of contagion to ease somewhat.

lilwng - Not heard much on the US this season, Canada and Japan have been badly affected in recent days.